When the Oscar nominations are announced Monday morning—after an unusually compressed voting period that only lasted six days—we will finally get answers to some of the most pressing questions of this awards season.
Will history be made in the best-actress category?
Renée Zellweger (Judy), already a Golden Globe winner, Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), and Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) all seem like safe bets in this race, with only Ronan at possible risk of missing out. But she has proven herself a favorite of Oscar voters in the past, having grabbed three nods in her relatively brief career (for Atonement, Brooklyn, and Lady Bird), and chances are good that she will add her fourth this year.
That leaves four actresses vying for the final spot, and, not insignificantly, all are women of color: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Lupita Nyong’o (Us), Awkwafina (The Farewell), and Alfre Woodard (Clemency). With her Golden Globes win for best actress in a comedy or musical, Awkwafina likely improved her chances of grabbing that final spot. But she didn’t make the cut in this category when the Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced last month, nor is she up for a BAFTA, often a reliable indicator of an Oscar nod. Meanwhile, both Nyong’o and Erivo made the SAG list, but neither was nominated for a BAFTA, which seems like a bad omen. As for Woodard, she has failed to gain any major nominations so far this award season—and Clemency was a very late, year-end arrival in theaters—but critics have raved over her performance, and I think there is a small chance she might steal that final spot.
Still, given her Golden Globes momentum, I think that Awkwafina has the odds in her favor and would thus become the first Asian American woman to ever be nominated for best actress at the Oscars.
Will Greta Gerwig make some history of her own?
Despite the strong reviews for Little Women, Gerwig has so far been left out when it comes to the best-director category in the major pre-Oscars awards. So far, the rosters for the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs and, most crucially, the Directors Guild of America Awards have been all male. But if Gerwig does break through at the Oscars, it will be a particularly notable achievement. Since the first Oscar ceremony in 1929, only five women have been nominated for best director—Lina Wertmuller (Seven Beauties, 1977), Jane Campion (The Piano, 1994), Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation, 2004), Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker, 2010), and Gerwig (Lady Bird, 2008)—with only Bigelow coming out a winner. And each of those women has just one directing nomination. If her name is read out Monday morning, Gerwig will be the first to get a second.
Will Adam Sandler finally get some Oscar love?
The comedian’s breakout role as a dramatic actor, in 2002’s Punch-Drunk Love, was widely expected to bring him an Oscar nomination. But Sandler failed to make the cut when the five nominees were announced. (That year the roster was Sean Penn, Johnny Depp, Bill Murray, Ben Kingsley, and Jude Law, with Penn winning for Mystic River.) But Sandler may be back in contention this year with his role as Howard Ratner, a New York City diamond dealer in Josh and Benny Safdie’s Uncut Gems. On the plus side, though the film has been somewhat polarizing, it’s brought Sandler terrific reviews and has shown surprising strength at the box office. On the minus side: Sandler has gone zero for three with the Globes, the Screen Actors Guild, and the BAFTAs. At this point, it’s hard to imagine the Oscars breaking that streak.
And what about Eddie Murphy?
In 2007, Eddie Murphy seemed like a lock for a best-supporting-actor Oscar for his role in Dreamgirls, especially after winning at the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild ceremonies that year. But he was pipped at the post by veteran actor Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine. It’s been a long road back to possible Oscar contention since then—with a string of critical and financial misfires like Norbit and Meet Dave not helping much. But Dolemite Is My Name has brought Murphy some of the strongest reviews of his career, and there is buzz about him getting his first best-actor nomination, helped in part by his triumphant return to Saturday Night Live in December, which gave that show its highest ratings in years. Unfortunately, a loss at the Globes (to Taron Egerton) had begun to mute some of that buzz. In what is possibly the most competitive category this year, Murphy may have difficulty cracking the final five.
So, is Taron Egerton this year’s Rami Malek?
Murphy’s loss may well be Egerton’s gain. Though Egerton got excellent reviews for the Elton John bio Rocketman when it was released in May, his chances of grabbing an Oscar nomination seemed to fade as awards season kicked into high gear and a flurry of better-known actors entered the race. Plus, there was some speculation that Oscar voters may not want to honor a film about a legendary British rock star two years in a row. But Egerton, whose previous film had been the box-office bomb Robin Hood, has turned out to be the dark horse of this campaign season. He was the surprise winner at the Golden Globes (over Leonardo DiCaprio, no less) and has been nominated for best actor by both SAG and the BAFTAs. Chances are strong that both he and John (in contention for his own Oscar for the Rocketman song “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”) will get good news on Monday.
Will the Oscars score a perfect 10?
In 2011 the academy allowed the category for best picture to expand from five to ten nominees. That year, 10 films were nominated, as was the case in 2012. But since then the final list has toggled between eight and nine films. (Last year, when Green Book won, there were eight nominees.) But this year has been an unusually strong one for films, and it seems likely that 10 will be nominated. The 10 that made the Producers Guild Awards list seem like a safe bet in this category: 1917, Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Knives Out, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Parasite. And who will take home the Oscar? The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood entered the award season as cofavorites, and 1917 grabbed an upset win at the Golden Globes. But there seems to be growing sentiment for Parasite, the best-reviewed film of 2019, which looks like it may well become the first foreign-language film to ever win best picture.
The Oscar nominations are expected to be announced at roughly 8:20 a.m. ET on Monday. The ceremony will be held on Sunday, February 9.
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